[sbe-eas] NWS forgetting the lessons of Hurricane Harvey (Houston 2017)

[Rob Dale]

Actually, up to 45 tornadoes right now... Again - Harvey's issue was the repeated issuance of warnings over the same area for DAYS. In these cases, some areas got a few dings over a 4-6 hour span. I don't think that's the same...

Rob

________________________________
From: sbe-eas <sbe-eas-bounces at sbe.org> on behalf of Ed Czarnecki <ed.czarnecki at digitalalertsystems.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2024 12:26 PM
To: SBE EAS Exchange - a mail list for discussion about the Emergency Alert System and other emergency communication issues. <sbe-eas at sbe.org>
Subject: Re: [sbe-eas] NWS forgetting the lessons of Hurricane Harvey (Houston 2017)


Consider that there were more than a DOZEN tornados in the affected area.  So that is more like a 10:1 ratio of alerts per event.  But that’s a faulty comparison itself, since there were probably (still to be determined) even more actual tornadoes, plus imminent circulatory activity that triggered a warning, even if did not result in a touch down.  Plus, a dozen tornados, moving in overlapping zones.  So the actual ratio of warnings to tornado event could be much narrower.



133+ tornado warnings seems rather understandable in this kind of extreme situation.



And, just fwiw, one of our DAS colleagues in FL was in one of those zones.  He got the warning and got the family into a safe area.  Tornado did not impact his property, but did take out the transformers.  This was one of the larger “monster” tornadoes that were posted on youtube already.



There have been nine confirmed deaths so far due to those tornados, and the casualty county may well go higher as recovery efforts proceed.  Having said that, dinging people 10 or times over WEA that there is a tornado … on the ground … may well have gotten some of the more stubborn folk to actually take action, and prevent further casualties (as a relative of some rather stubborn folk in FL).



My 2 cents, fwiw











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From: sbe-eas <sbe-eas-bounces at sbe.org> On Behalf Of Aaron Read
Sent: Wednesday, October 9, 2024 7:58 PM
To: SBE EAS Exchange - a mail list for discussion about the Emergency Alert System and other emergency communication issues. <sbe-eas at sbe.org>
Subject: Re: [sbe-eas] NWS forgetting the lessons of Hurricane Harvey (Houston 2017)



One thing you always count on from a govt agency is that they will NEVER EVER admit that they sent "too many" warnings.



Sending too many warnings, and causing people to disable the alerts, will not result in the agency getting in trouble (or not much trouble) regardless of how few or how many fatalities there end up being.



Sending too few warnings, however, all but guarantees the agency WILL get blamed for each and every death that occurs, no matter how tangential to the disaster the alert is about.



Especially now when I'm positive Florida's governor will find some way to blame NOAA and/or FEMA just so he can score political points for his own reelection.



This "cover your ass" mentality is hardly unique to government agencies...but I concede few seem to do it better.  It's a shame almost nobody with power  in DC cares to actually understand why that is and to try to fix it.

____________________
Aaron Read
www.friedbagels.com<http://www.friedbagels.com>
401-519-0230 office





On Wed, Oct 9, 2024 at 7:01 PM Sean Donelan <sean at donelan.com<mailto:sean at donelan.com>> wrote:

NWS is now up to 133 tornado warnings in a hurricane.  Milton hasn't even
made landfall yet.

The graphic from NWS shows a lot of overlapping warning areas as the outer
rainbands around Hurricane Milton spin through the atmosphere.

https://x.com/NWSGSP/status/1844129342974009810

Figuring out how to coordinate warning messages is still a challenge to
prevent incessent public alerting.

Hurricanes have flash flooding, coastal flooding, regular flooding,
tornados, lightning and thunderstorms, high winds, storm surges. NWS
standard templates used to give conflicting public action statements
during the same weather event with overlapping alerts.

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