[sbe-eas] NWS forgetting the lessons of Hurricane Harvey (Houston 2017)

[Rob Dale]

I think this is slightly different given the transitive nature of the warnings. 

It’s not like Harvey when it was the same area repeatedly with no tornadoes. 

These have been some BIG tornadoes. 

> On Oct 9, 2024, at 3:06 PM, Sean Donelan <sean at donelan.com> wrote:
> 
> As of 3pm, NWS has already issued 53 tornado warnings.
> 
> During Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the NWS issued so many tornado warnings for minor EF0 or less, people turned off their cell phones because it kept disturbing them.
> 
> Later when the dam/levee was breached, flooding an unexpected area of Houston, people didn't get the warning because they had disabled alerts or turned off phones.
> 
> https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/harvey6-18.pdf
> 
> "The high False Alarm Ratio, short Average Lead Time, and great frequency of spatial repetition resulted in concerns about the effectiveness of the TORs issued during Hurricane Harvey.  Responses from EMs and the public reflect a mixed picture however.  While some EMs stated that “warning saturation” caused them to tune out the messages (and in some cases, turn off their notifications), other respondents (among both EMs and the public) did perceive a value to the TORs, despite their frequency.  They felt the incessant warnings woke people up and motivated them to maintain a higher level of overall weather situational awareness."
> [...]
> 
> "In addition to the large number of TORs, WFOs also issued 134 FFWs during Hurricane Harvey.  The vast majority of these FFWs were issued by WFOs Houston and Lake Charles, and many coincided with TORs in effect for the same areas.  Again, both positive and negative public response impacts emerged from partner feedback regarding these multiple warnings.  A strong perception did exist, however, that the FFWs resulted in lives saved – a conclusion bolstered by the relatively low fatality total for Hurricane Harvey."_______________________________________________
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