[sbe-eas] NWS forgetting the lessons of Hurricane Harvey (Houston 2017)

[FRANK BELL]

Alert fatigue is some thing someone can write a paper about. There is
already one about that for Ukraine.

On Wed, Oct 9, 2024, 16:40 Rob Dale <rdale at skywatch.org> wrote:

> I think this is slightly different given the transitive nature of the
> warnings.
>
> It’s not like Harvey when it was the same area repeatedly with no
> tornadoes.
>
> These have been some BIG tornadoes.
>
> > On Oct 9, 2024, at 3:06 PM, Sean Donelan <sean at donelan.com> wrote:
> >
> > As of 3pm, NWS has already issued 53 tornado warnings.
> >
> > During Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the NWS issued so many tornado warnings
> for minor EF0 or less, people turned off their cell phones because it kept
> disturbing them.
> >
> > Later when the dam/levee was breached, flooding an unexpected area of
> Houston, people didn't get the warning because they had disabled alerts or
> turned off phones.
> >
> > https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/harvey6-18.pdf
> >
> > "The high False Alarm Ratio, short Average Lead Time, and great
> frequency of spatial repetition resulted in concerns about the
> effectiveness of the TORs issued during Hurricane Harvey.  Responses from
> EMs and the public reflect a mixed picture however.  While some EMs stated
> that “warning saturation” caused them to tune out the messages (and in some
> cases, turn off their notifications), other respondents (among both EMs and
> the public) did perceive a value to the TORs, despite their frequency.
> They felt the incessant warnings woke people up and motivated them to
> maintain a higher level of overall weather situational awareness."
> > [...]
> >
> > "In addition to the large number of TORs, WFOs also issued 134 FFWs
> during Hurricane Harvey.  The vast majority of these FFWs were issued by
> WFOs Houston and Lake Charles, and many coincided with TORs in effect for
> the same areas.  Again, both positive and negative public response impacts
> emerged from partner feedback regarding these multiple warnings.  A strong
> perception did exist, however, that the FFWs resulted in lives saved – a
> conclusion bolstered by the relatively low fatality total for Hurricane
> Harvey."_______________________________________________
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