[SBE] Industry retirement situation

[John Freberg]

It' s refreshing to see the response to this thread.

While the points made by the various postings resonate with the  
engineer me, there are a few structural factors affecting this  
industry that have not been mentioned that cause me to be skeptical  
about future employment trends.

As a 'product', conventional broadcasting is a mature product, well  
into the harvest phase of its life cycle. Corporate management knows  
this and runs the stations accordingly. During the harvest phase,  
significant new capital investment is rare, and made only to extend  
the life of the existing cash flows. DTV investment has been an  
anomaly, because it is government mandated. The sluggish uptake of HD  
Radio is evidence of management's reluctance to invest capital with  
little prospect of improved cash flow.

The cash flows that do currently exist are being challenged  
('disrupted' to use the trendy term) by competitors from other fields.  
A wise person once said' "Half of every advertising dollar I spend is  
wasted. The trouble is I don't know which half." Arbitron and People  
Meters aside, many of the competitors to conventional broadcasting  
offer much more concrete evidence about their audience and resulting  
effectiveness of their advertising. This is seriously affecting the  
price of spots.

Broadcasting lost the technology quality race about 10 years ago, but  
few noticed. 'Broadcast Quality' used to be the gold standard.  With  
1080P home theaters, 5/6/7/8.1 surround sound, Blu-ray discs available  
at increasingly affordable prices, our offerings have become second  
tier. This is not to say that there will not be demand for good SD and  
HD material, but to try to position the success of the industry around  
ultimate technical quality is pointless. The bright side of this is  
that viewer expectations for technical quality have been been raised,  
and management will be forced by the marketplace to upgrade the  
technical plant if it wants to compete.

Conventional broadcasting does not come close to meeting the range of  
uses for media that are present in the audience. VOD, DVR's, YouTube,  
MediaFLO, DVB-H and dozens of other emerging technologies are just  
beginning to tap the latent demand for long-tail media products.   
(Read Chris Anderson's book "The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business  
is Selling Less of More" (ISBN 1-4013-0237-8). Many in our fraternity  
who poo-poo cellphone video, low-frame rate internet video and other  
technologies miss the point. Demand for our conventional services is  
very nearly satisfied. Growth is occurring in other uses and  
applications. There is little new development activity going on in  
conventional broadcasting technology. R&D money, and consequently the  
new engineers, are going into the digital, networked, new media world  
by a factor that I would guess is easily a 10:1.

Finally (for this rant), government policies have aggravated the  
situation. Heavy consolidation of the industry has concentrated  
ownership of broadcasting in the hands of a relatively small number of  
people who have very similar  views and backgrounds. Visionary and  
forward-thinking are terms that don't come to mind when I think about  
them. Really good people with innovative ideas are regularly driven  
out of this industry. Sometimes passively, and sometimes  
intentionally. Perhaps some restoring some diversity in ownership  
would allow some maverick idea to take hold in this industry that  
could change the game. Perhaps we should be more politically involved  
as an engineering community.

My advice to the engineering community is to prepare yourself to work  
in another field. Even if you are 'only' 5 years from retirement, you  
may find yourself facing a career change tomorrow. SBE should be  
developing programs for its membership with this in mind.

John Freberg


On Mar 15, 2008, at 5:09 PM, Barry Mishkind wrote:


> None of these media have managed to make any money aside from a few  

> publicized buyouts, so "embracing" such media is still premature.  

> Would one want to learn how to make buggywhips?

>

> Without a clear view of how things will shake down - and which ones  

> may have a viable economic foundation    the rest is just talk that  

> does not help people who are scrambling just to survive.

>

> Of course, communicating with management makes sense in most cases.  

> But without providing the right tools and the *support* structure  

> they need most engineers are left in a very weak position in most  

> places. The paucity of any real support is what drives many to leave  

> the industry, whether in retirement or via change in work.

>

> At 12:22 PM 3/15/2008, chscherer at everestkc.net, wrote

>> If you narrowly focus on broadcast in the classic sense - a  

>> terrestrial transmitter - then yes, the audience and ad pool are  

>> declining. Broadcasters who view themselves as media outlets and  

>> embrace the other forms of media - IPTV, podcasts, streaming,  

>> Wimax, etc. - have a better chance of remaining successful. Younger  

>> audiences embrace these technologies. Unless you are close to  

>> retirement, you should too.

>>

>> Terry Baun, Barry Thomas and I have referred to the modern  

>> broadcast engineer as a media engineer. That title includes the new  

>> technologies that are part of the modern media landscape.

>>

>> Yes, we are driving on the rails we are given, but communication  

>> with the top is still key. Be an active participant in planning the  

>> budget. Help management understand the ramifications of the choices  

>> being made. Man the engines as you're told, but also provide advice  

>> for the future. Be a part of the 1-year, 5-year, 10-year (if there  

>> is one) and longer plans. Doing so makes the engineer a part of  

>> planning the solution.

>>

>> Also, I know that every situation is different. Some managers are  

>> honest and open. Some are simply concerned with making their  

>> numbers and getting their bonus at the expense of sacrificing  

>> others. There isn't a single, easy approach. That's where  

>> interpersonal skills come in to play.

>>

>>

>> ----- Original Message -----

>> From: Barry Mishkind <barry at oldradio.com>

>> > For many of the reasons you cite, including the press for Internet

>> > advertising, ad agencies have already said that the money pool

>> > available for radio is going to be flat, or slightly lower - at

>> > least on a national level.

>> >

>> > That makes getting enough budget for technical matters difficult,

>> > much less adding signals, digital channels, etc.  Wortse, after

>> > having made major investments already in IBOC, far too many

>> > companies - even those not crippled by the cash flow and current  

>> stock price

>> > issues - have decided to burn the furniture, rather than invest in

>> > more gear/people.

>> >

>> > The really sad part is that while we can see these issues, the

>> > tech folks have relatively little leverage to do much. Sort of  

>> like a

>> > train engineer, we can only drive on the tracks we are given.

>> > Until the content problem is solved - a way to involve young  

>> people in

>> > the air product - we will see more erosion in listeners/sales. The

>> > challenge for engineers to avoid being red-lined.

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>

>

> _______________________________________________________________________

> Barry Mishkind     -       Tucson, AZ    -   520-296-3797

>

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